Cost has gradually "retreated to the second line", and demand and mentality have become the "dominant factors" that determine the direction of the domestic steel market. According to the latest market report provided by the well-known domestic steel information organization "My Steel", in the past week, the forward price of steel futures has fallen all the way, and the decline has been obvious. The "after-market mentality" in the spot steel market has clearly changed. Optimism has turned cautious, which has led to a decline in spot quotes.
During the weak decline of the steel market, demand and mentality have gradually risen as the "dominant factors" of the market. Although the market demand for steel has improved slightly from the previous period, and low-priced resources have been sold well, transactions of high-priced resources have remained sluggish. Some steel traders have faced financial pressure, and market inventory is gradually rising. However, in the short term, we do not see the possibility of a sharp correction in the market.
According to analysis, the decline in the domestic construction steel market is relatively heavy. People in the market report that although manufacturers such as Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang, and Maanshan Iron and Steel have successively raised their ex-factory prices and want to continue to push up market prices, the weak demand and sluggish transactions have led to such "push-up" behavior. The taste of "strengthening heart" is very "out of season" and will even bring more side effects to the already weak market. In addition, the futures contract price of rebar has fallen rapidly, and it is also continuously releasing panic to the spot market, which has hit business confidence. Specifically, the weakness of the market can be divided into three levels: "inventory continues to rise, capital is further tightening, and demand is slowly recovering." It is difficult to provide too much support for steel prices.
The domestic hot rolled coil market is in a state of wide fluctuations. From the market feedback, at the beginning of the most recent week, traders were still bullish on the market outlook, and intermediate demand also improved significantly. However, in the process of declining futures prices, the "intermediate demand" of the spot market has shrunk sharply, and the market Weakened mentality. Steel mills such as Maanshan Iron and Steel, TISCO, Anshan Iron and Steel, etc., continue to raise the ex-factory prices against the current situation, and this will make the cost of spot market resources higher in the later period, which is not conducive to merchants' homeopathic shipments.
The domestic cold-rolled market is weakly consolidating, the overall turnover is weak, and the business mood is slightly pessimistic. At present, the cold rolled stocks in mainstream cities are still high, and the low-cost resources in the early stage have not been fully digested, and the merchants have the incentive to "reduce cash." In the shock market, the downstream performance is also more cautious, trading on the market is not positive, and wait-and-see mood is dominant.
Related analysts believe that the weak pattern of the domestic steel market is gradually taking shape, and the "cost support force" from the chase of raw material prices is inevitably releasing its accumulated risk space, coupled with the continued large decline in future prices, Multiple negative factors such as weakening of intermediate demand and sluggish confidence of traders affect the market, and it will be difficult for the spot market to get rid of the decline.