Under the influence of collective decline in foreign markets and domestic tightening concerns, Zheng Mian has fallen sharply from an all-time high of 34870 yuan / ton and once fell below the important support level of 30,000 yuan / ton. However, driven by the positive stimulus from the external market last weekend and the overall sharp rebound of the market on Monday, Zheng Mian stopped falling and rebounded on Monday to close the short limit, and the electronic disk also responded to the daily limit by the daily limit.
Product risk buildup
In late February, international market politics, economics, and natural disasters agglomerated. Tensions in Libya caused crude oil prices to hit a new high since the 2008 economic crisis, and exceeded $ 100 / barrel. The need for safe-haven prompted the price of gold to once again hit the $ 1,400 line. Moody's downgraded the outlook of the Japanese government's sovereign rating from stable to negative, and the New Zealand earthquake triggered a sharp decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market. The cumulative effect has led to a panic in the commodity market, and the overall decline in commodities has shown a rapid decline. Various signs indicate that the market's rising risk is gradually accumulating.
The turbulent situation and natural disasters are just the trigger for the slump in commodities. More importantly, the market is concerned about the continuous rise in prices, and the gradual tightening of monetary policies and the determination to suppress inflation in various countries. Zheng Mian's main force rose nearly 2125 points on February 28. In the late trading, the shorts were killed by the daily limit. It can be seen that Zheng Mian's strong pattern still exists in the short term, but the overall risk of rising commodities cannot be ignored.
Prominent contraction effect
The central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for the second time this year, and this is the eighth increase in the deposit reserve ratio since 2010. After the increase, the deposit reserve ratio of large and medium-sized deposit financial institutions reached a historical high of 19.5%. The central bank's continuous combination of interest rate hikes and increase in the reserve requirement ratio fully demonstrates the government's determination to curb current inflation. It also shows that the current monetary policy is different from the previous two years and has officially entered a stable-based regulatory cycle. In 2011 In the first half of the year, the government will definitely take various measures to control prices, and various austerity measures will be continuously introduced. It can be seen that the tone of tightening monetary policy will not change.
Although some textile companies have begun construction after the holiday, in addition to some key enterprises with funding guarantees for policies, small and medium-sized enterprises or enterprises with no resources advantage are somewhat troubled by the tightening of funds. The effect of continuous tightening of monetary policies around the New Year gradually appears in the market . For cotton, in addition to the market's concerns about the international situation, the international market is mainly concerned about China ’s tightening monetary policy, which may become the last straw that overwhelms marginal textile companies, high-priced cotton and funding gaps. Will lead to a reduction in cotton consumption. Therefore, in the context of the tightening of the domestic monetary policy and the concern that the tightening effect in the early stage is gradually emerging, the overall demand for cotton in the market will decrease and the operating costs of enterprises will increase, which will negatively affect cotton prices in the later period.
Increased upward resistance
Zheng Cotton's strong upward trend a year ago was mainly stimulated by the hype of domestic supply-demand imbalances and the continuous rise in peripheral cotton, while foreign cotton has shown a trend of correction after hitting a record high. With a large amount of imported cotton arriving in Hong Kong in December last year and January this year, the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and the cotton price has experienced a phased correction. Although the news has been slightly more favorable recently, it has generally shown a high-level shock pattern, but the upward trend of foreign cotton has been reversed, which will fundamentally weaken the momentum of Zheng Cotton's simultaneous rise.
The domestic spot market is still in the wait-and-see stage because of the impact of the callback on the futures price of the cotton circulation intermediate circulation and downstream textile companies as a whole. A large number of domestic stocks are concentrated in the intermediate circulation link, and the price has not been significantly loosened. The price of Grade 3 cotton is still hovering at a high level. Textile companies buy and use as they want, and there is basically no large-scale replenishment. It can be seen that there is no enthusiasm for high-priced cotton in the consumption link. Many favorable factors in the early stage are gradually fading, and upward pressure on cotton prices is increasing in the later stage.
Therefore, although the overall commodity rose on Monday, it is still seen as a sharp rebound in the short term. In view of the excessive rise in prices caused by inflation has become the concern of governments in various countries, and the tone of the domestic monetary tightening policy remains unchanged, the market is still facing the risk of capital gap pressure in the later stage, and the rising cotton prices in the early stage are also receding. In the near future, we must pay attention to relevant policies and the overall trend of commodities, and pay attention to avoiding the risk of high market fluctuations.